Fig. 2

Relationships between mean water temperature (T in °C) in the preceding winter (temperatures as open points in Fig. 1a) and number N of sampling sites (among a total of 15) where at least 1 specimen was found in the subsequent late-winter/early-spring sampling of 10 winter-sensitive species: a (open circles) Lanice conchilega, (solid squares) Malmgreniella lunulata; b (open circles) Tellina tenuis, (solid squares) Abra tenuis; c (open circles) Mysella bidentata, (solid squares) Nephtys hombergii; d (open circles) Nemertean worms, (solid squares) Cerastoderma edule; e Crangon crangon; f Carcinus maenas. Best linear fits: (a, L. conchilega) N = −2.68 + 1.83 T (r = 0.71, n = 39, P < 0.0001), (a, M. lunulata) N = −0.66 + 0.45 T (r = 0.40, n = 39, P < 0.05), (b, T. tenuis) N = 0.55 + 0.34 T (r = 0.36, n = 39, P < 0.05), (b, A. tenuis) N = −0.41 + 0.53 T (r = 0.55, n = 39, P < 0.001), (c, M. bidentata) N = −0.57 + 0.55 T (r = 0.48, n = 39, P = 0.002), (c, N. hombergii) N = 5.4 + 1.41 T (r = 0.72, n = 39, P < 0.0001), (d, Nemertean worms) N = −0.2 + 0.58 T (r = 0.54, n = 39, P = 0.0004), (d, C. edule) N = 7.1 + 1.00 T (r = 0.68, n = 39, P < 0.0001), (e, C. crangon) N = 2.45 + 1.15 T (r = 0.58, n = 39, P = 0.0001), and (f, C. maenas) N = 4.94 + 0.73 T, r = 0.42, n = 39, P < 0.01)